Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints21
- Cam SpencerAssists9
- GG JacksonRebounds5
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–122
- Q40.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound116–122
- Q41.1GG Jackson misses tip shot116–122
- Q42.0GG Jackson offensive rebound116–122
- Q42.0Scotty Pippen Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot116–122
- Q44.9Cam Spencer enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper116–122
- Q44.9Grizzlies Full timeout116–122
- Q44.9Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2116–122
- Q44.9Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas116–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:13Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)MEM 105 – 106 DEN · MEM 17% → 31% +15MEM 17% → 31%+15 pts
- Q44:45Bruce Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)MEM 105 – 109 DEN · DEN 68% → 83% +15DEN 68% → 83%+15 pts
- Q43:36Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MEM 109 – 112 DEN · DEN 61% → 80% +19DEN 61% → 80%+19 pts
- Q41:15Scotty Pippen Jr. makes running layupMEM 115 – 116 DEN · MEM 13% → 32% +19MEM 13% → 32%+19 pts
- Q457.1Nikola Jokic makes two point shotMEM 115 – 118 DEN · DEN 69% → 89% +20DEN 69% → 89%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -14.5
- ML MEM +490 / DEN -675
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -11
- DEN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- DEN: Elo 85.3%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -514
- MEM +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.5 – 127.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | +72 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +305 Elo | DEN 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 84.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 120.31st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 116.419th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +4.09th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 119.81st of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–16 | Road vs home | 14–1114th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148528th of 30 |
| 20th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15966th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–29 | 31–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 18–16 |
| Underdog | 14–21 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27 | 33–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–7 DEN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Nov 24DEN 125 @ MEM 115Picked DEN 70%Hit
- Apr 11MEM 109 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Nov 19DEN 122 @ MEM 110Picked MEM 67%Miss
- Nov 17DEN 90 @ MEM 105Picked MEM 67%Hit
- Apr 14DEN 126 @ MEM 111Picked DEN 73%Hit
- Mar 25MEM 103 @ DEN 128Picked DEN 65%Hit
- Dec 28MEM 105 @ DEN 142Picked DEN 77%Hit
- Oct 27DEN 108 @ MEM 104Picked DEN 62%Hit