Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints32
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds8
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints21
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists10
- Ryan RollinsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–94
- Q40.1Bucks offensive team rebound122–94
- Q41.5Andre Jackson Jr. misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot122–94
- Q45.0Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound122–94
- Q46.5Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Andre Jackson Jr. 's 2-foot driving layup122–94
- Q412.6shot clock turnover122–94
- Q436.6Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 1122–94
- Q436.6Gradey Dick shooting foul122–93
- Q436.6Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes driving layup122–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:48Ryan Rollins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)TOR 34 – 38 MIL · MIL 45% → 53% +8MIL 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q27:39Jamison Battle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 37 – 38 MIL · TOR 47% → 55% +8TOR 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q26:58Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)TOR 40 – 41 MIL · MIL 37% → 45% +8MIL 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q39:35Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)TOR 62 – 59 MIL · MIL 27% → 35% +8MIL 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q39:13Jamal Shead makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 65 – 59 MIL · TOR 65% → 73% +8TOR 65% → 73%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -4.5
- ML TOR -162 / MIL +136
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -0.5
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -146
- MIL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 112.0 – 107.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −32 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +7 Elo | MIL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.7 | Points scored | 112.326th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 115.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −2.922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.4 | Pace | 99.426th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 12–1219th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301481 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–27 | 25–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 22–34 | 22–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–5 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 18TOR 111 @ MIL 105Picked TOR 63%Hit
- Nov 4MIL 100 @ TOR 128Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Oct 24MIL 122 @ TOR 116Picked TOR 54%Miss
- Jan 17TOR 112 @ MIL 130Picked MIL 82%Hit
- Jan 6MIL 128 @ TOR 104Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Nov 12TOR 85 @ MIL 99Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Apr 5TOR 117 @ MIL 111Picked MIL 75%Miss
- Nov 15MIL 128 @ TOR 112Picked TOR 61%Miss