Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jaylin WilliamsPoints30
- Aaron WigginsAssists6
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds11
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists13
- Jalen DurenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–124
- Q48.8Jalen Duren defensive rebound116–124
- Q410.1Kenrich Williams misses tip shot116–124
- Q412.1Kenrich Williams offensive rebound116–124
- Q413.2Nikola Topic misses driving layup116–124
- Q420.9Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2116–124
- Q420.9Nikola Topic enters the game for Cason Wallace116–123
- Q420.9Buddy Boeheim enters the game for Aaron Wiggins116–123
- Q420.9Kenrich Williams enters the game for Luguentz Dort116–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:51Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Topic assists)OKC 37 – 26 DET · OKC 44% → 52% +8OKC 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q45:23Aaron Wiggins makes 27-foot running jump shot (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 103 – 108 DET · OKC 7% → 15% +8OKC 7% → 15%+8 pts
- Q44:37Javonte Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)OKC 105 – 111 DET · DET 77% → 89% +12DET 77% → 89%+12 pts
- Q44:14Aaron Wiggins makes 20-foot pullup jump shotOKC 107 – 111 DET · OKC 10% → 18% +8OKC 10% → 18%+8 pts
- Q43:18Cade Cunningham makes 17-foot step back jumpshotOKC 107 – 113 DET · DET 84% → 92% +8DET 84% → 92%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -10.5
- ML OKC +340 / DET -440
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -8.5
- DET 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 79.5%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -359
- OKC +359 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 105.0 – 115.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1698 | 1633 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −168 | +57 | OKC: Missing Alex Caruso −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +236 Elo | DET 79.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 78.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 117.38th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 109.44th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | +7.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 114.511th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 106.82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.0 | Pace | 102.114th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–7 | Road vs home | 21–73rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 1st of 301698 | Elo rating | 16334th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−168 Elo- Alex Caruso sprained left ankle−10 Elo
Pistons
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–29 | 31–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–28 | 21–24 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 10–1 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.