Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Cason WallacePoints27
- Cason WallaceAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds9
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints21
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- RJ BarrettRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–107
- Q41.3shot clock turnover116–107
- Q427.1Luguentz Dort defensive rebound116–107
- Q427.1Immanuel Quickley misses 24-foot fade away jump shot116–107
- Q431.6Chet Holmgren makes dunk116–107
- Q431.6Chet Holmgren offensive rebound114–107
- Q433.8Chet Holmgren misses tip in dunk114–107
- Q433.8Chet Holmgren offensive rebound114–107
- Q435.6Isaiah Joe misses driving floating jump shot114–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:31Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)OKC 101 – 94 TOR · TOR 8% → 16% +8TOR 8% → 16%+8 pts
- Q44:06Jamal Shead makes 27-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)OKC 101 – 101 TOR · TOR 30% → 50% +20TOR 30% → 50%+20 pts
- Q43:55Cason Wallace makes driving layupOKC 103 – 101 TOR · OKC 50% → 64% +14OKC 50% → 64%+14 pts
- Q43:31Cason Wallace makes driving layup (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 105 – 101 TOR · OKC 65% → 78% +13OKC 65% → 78%+13 pts
- Q43:14Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot running jump shot (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 108 – 101 TOR · OKC 79% → 92% +13OKC 79% → 92%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -1.5
- ML OKC -108 / TOR -112
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -0.5
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.3%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -102
- OKC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 107.5 – 109.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1689 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −98 | +40 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone and TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +12 Elo | OKC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 113.923rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 111.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | +2.111th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 112.616th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 110.57th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–7 | Road vs home | 16–1315th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 1st of 301689 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–29 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–28 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–27 | 22–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–1 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.