Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints30
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds8
Kings- Maxime RaynaudPoints17
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–94
- Q424.7Nique Clifford lost ball turnover (Jamal Cain steals)131–94
- Q433.1Jett Howard makes 24-foot jump bank shot131–94
- Q454.3Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound128–94
- Q458.6Devin Carter misses 24-foot three point jumper128–94
- Q41:08Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound128–94
- Q41:11Jamal Cain misses driving floating jump shot128–94
- Q41:19Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound128–94
- Q41:22Devin Carter misses tip shot128–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:15Jett Howard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)ORL 24 – 32 SAC · ORL 45% → 52% +7ORL 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q210:01Nique Clifford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)ORL 24 – 35 SAC · SAC 48% → 55% +7SAC 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q35:08Malik Monk makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)ORL 80 – 79 SAC · SAC 23% → 32% +9SAC 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q34:41Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)ORL 83 – 79 SAC · ORL 68% → 77% +9ORL 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q33:46Jevon Carter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)ORL 88 – 81 SAC · ORL 77% → 84% +7ORL 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -8.5
- ML ORL -345 / SAC +275
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- ORL: Elo 69.6%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- ORL -291
- SAC +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 117.5 – 109.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1352 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −73 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Missing Dylan Cardwell −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +144 Elo | ORL 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 110.129th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 120.628th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −10.529th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 108.229th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 118.428th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.217th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 9–1928th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15241st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301453 | Elo rating | 135227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−73 Elo- Dylan Cardwell sprained left ankle−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–32 | 21–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–23 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 19–31 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–2 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.