Orlando Magic at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints36
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds14
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints37
- Bennedict MathurinAssists5
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–109
- Q40.1Clippers offensive team rebound111–109
- Q40.6Bennedict Mathurin misses 25-foot three point jumper111–109
- Q47.8Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound111–109
- Q48.1Yanic Konan Niederhauser blocks Desmond Bane 's 2-foot driving layup111–109
- Q428.0Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jonathan Isaac111–109
- Q428.0Magic Full timeout111–109
- Q428.0Kawhi Leonard makes 7-foot pullup jump shot111–109
- Q440.4Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Tristan da Silva111–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:08Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)ORL 96 – 98 LAC · LAC 50% → 65% +15LAC 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q43:03Kawhi Leonard makes 18-foot jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)ORL 105 – 107 LAC · LAC 53% → 69% +16LAC 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q42:40Desmond Bane makes 14-foot step back jumpshotORL 107 – 107 LAC · ORL 30% → 47% +17ORL 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q41:26Desmond Bane makes driving layupORL 109 – 107 LAC · ORL 48% → 71% +23ORL 48% → 71%+23 pts
- Q440.4Paolo Banchero makes 2-foot running dunk (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 111 – 107 LAC · ORL 80% → 96% +16ORL 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.7% of 394 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML ORL +150 / LAC -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 68.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAC -161
- ORL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 105.5 – 110.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | −55 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +138 Elo | LAC 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 112.126th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 112.69th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 114.320th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.928th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 14–1115th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 20th of 301463 | Elo rating | 15758th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–32 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–4 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.