LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints31
- Kris DunnAssists8
- Brook LopezRebounds10
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints38
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Deandre AytonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–125
- Q43.7LeBron James defensive rebound122–125
- Q46.2Nicolas Batum misses 27-foot running jump shot122–125
- Q48.8LeBron James bad pass
turnover (Nicolas Batum steals)122–125
- Q49.7Luke Kennard enters the game for Deandre Ayton122–125
- Q49.7Lakers Full timeout122–125
- Q49.7Jordan Miller makes free throw 2 of 2122–125
- Q49.7Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 2121–125
- Q49.7Deandre Ayton shooting foul120–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:54Brook Lopez makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 106 – 104 LAL · LAC 37% → 53% +16LAC 37% → 53%+16 pts
- Q46:32Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAC 106 – 107 LAL · LAL 46% → 63% +17LAL 46% → 63%+17 pts
- Q46:11Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumperLAC 109 – 107 LAL · LAC 37% → 54% +17LAC 37% → 54%+17 pts
- Q45:11Luka Doncic makes 25-foot running jump shot (Rui Hachimura assists)LAC 109 – 112 LAL · LAL 57% → 74% +17LAL 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q43:32Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 113 – 117 LAL · LAL 63% → 82% +19LAL 63% → 82%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -7.5
- ML LAC +210 / LAL -258
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4
- LAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- LAL: Elo 65.0%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -223
- LAC +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 110.5 – 118.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −47 | +33 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +107 Elo | LAL 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 69.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 116.013th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 116.018th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 115.58th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 115.524th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 100.421st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 15–1012th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149224th of 30 |
| 8th of 301578 | Elo rating | 153013th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–27 | 30–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 22–10 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–7 LAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Jan 22LAL 104 @ LAC 112Picked LAC 56%Hit
- Dec 20LAL 88 @ LAC 103Picked LAL 54%Miss
- Nov 25LAC 118 @ LAL 135Picked LAL 70%Hit
- Mar 2LAC 102 @ LAL 108Picked LAC 54%Miss
- Feb 28LAC 102 @ LAL 106Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Feb 4LAL 122 @ LAC 97Picked LAC 75%Miss
- Jan 19LAL 102 @ LAC 116Picked LAC 62%Hit
- Feb 28LAL 116 @ LAC 112Picked LAC 51%Miss