Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints22
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Clippers- Bennedict MathurinPoints38
- Kris DunnAssists8
- John CollinsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–115
- Q40.9John Collins defensive rebound114–115
- Q40.9Jamal Murray misses free throw 3 of 3114–115
- Q40.9Yanic Konan Niederhauser enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin114–115
- Q40.9Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Cameron Johnson114–115
- Q40.9Christian Braun enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.114–115
- Q40.9Bruce Brown enters the game for Julian Strawther114–115
- Q40.9Brook Lopez enters the game for Kris Dunn114–115
- Q40.9Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 3114–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:50Derrick Jones Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)DEN 102 – 104 LAC · LAC 39% → 64% +25LAC 39% → 64%+25 pts
- Q41:23Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 105 – 107 LAC · DEN 12% → 29% +17DEN 12% → 29%+17 pts
- Q446.2Nikola Jokic makes 7-foot two point shotDEN 107 – 107 LAC · DEN 22% → 52% +30DEN 22% → 52%+30 pts
- Q435.6Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 107 – 108 LAC · LAC 49% → 67% +18LAC 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q411.0Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 112 – 113 LAC · DEN <1% → 21% +20DEN <1% → 21%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML DEN -185 / LAC +154
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 61.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -165
- LAC +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.5 – 111.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −53 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +80 Elo | DEN 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.4 | Points scored | 111.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 112.39th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 114.320th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.3 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–9 | Road vs home | 13–1117th of 30 |
| 29th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 7th of 301597 | Elo rating | 15738th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–24 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–22 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 10–7 LAC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.
- Jan 30LAC 109 @ DEN 122Picked LAC 56%Miss
- Nov 12DEN 130 @ LAC 116Picked DEN 64%Hit
- May 3LAC 101 @ DEN 120PlayoffsPicked DEN 54%Hit
- May 1DEN 105 @ LAC 111PlayoffsPicked LAC 69%Hit
- Apr 29LAC 115 @ DEN 131PlayoffsPicked LAC 54%Miss
- Apr 26DEN 101 @ LAC 99PlayoffsPicked LAC 70%Miss
- Apr 24DEN 83 @ LAC 117PlayoffsPicked LAC 67%Hit
- Apr 21LAC 105 @ DEN 102PlayoffsPicked DEN 50%Miss