San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints40
- Stephon CastleAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Lakers- Luke KennardPoints14
- Bronny JamesAssists6
- Dalton KnechtRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–108
- Q44.5shot clock turnover136–108
- Q428.5Dylan Harper defensive rebound136–108
- Q430.1Nick Smith Jr. misses 27-foot running jump shot136–108
- Q432.5Dalton Knecht defensive rebound136–108
- Q434.7Carter Bryant misses 29-foot three point jumper136–108
- Q447.1Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound136–108
- Q449.3Dalton Knecht misses free throw 2 of 2136–108
- Q449.3Dalton Knecht makes free throw 1 of 2136–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:45Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 3 – 0 LAL · SA 84% → 87% +4SA 84% → 87%+4 pts
- Q111:19Jaxson Hayes makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Kobe Bufkin assists)SA 3 – 2 LAL · LAL 13% → 15% +2LAL 13% → 15%+2 pts
- Q19:55Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 11 – 4 LAL · SA 88% → 91% +3SA 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q19:17Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 14 – 4 LAL · SA 91% → 93% +2SA 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q15:45Jake LaRavia makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)SA 26 – 18 LAL · LAL 6% → 8% +2LAL 6% → 8%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -13.5
- ML SA -700 / LAL +500
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -9
- SA 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- SA: Elo 81.1%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -525
- LAL +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 120.0 – 106.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +39 | −161 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +253 Elo | SA 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 82.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 82.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 116.014th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 115.917th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 115.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 115.522nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.321st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 14–911th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301573 | Elo rating | 152414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−161 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–23 | 29–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 21–10 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–32 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–6 LAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 7LAL 91 @ SA 107Picked SA 73%Hit
- Dec 10SA 132 @ LAL 119Picked LAL 71%Miss
- Nov 5SA 116 @ LAL 118Picked SA 53%Miss
- Mar 17SA 109 @ LAL 125Picked LAL 76%Hit
- Jan 13SA 126 @ LAL 102Picked LAL 61%Miss
- Nov 27LAL 119 @ SA 101Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Nov 15LAL 120 @ SA 115Picked LAL 57%Hit
- Feb 23SA 118 @ LAL 123Picked LAL 77%Hit