Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints19
- Brandon WilliamsAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds6
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- LeBron JamesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–124
- Q47.6Max Christie defensive rebound104–124
- Q412.3Bronny James misses 26-foot three point jumper104–124
- Q428.9Dalton Knecht defensive rebound104–124
- Q431.6Max Christie misses 26-foot three point jumper104–124
- Q432.8Dwight Powell offensive rebound104–124
- Q437.1Marvin Bagley III misses 27-foot three point jumper104–124
- Q444.4AJ Johnson defensive rebound104–124
- Q447.4Kobe Bufkin misses driving floating jump shot104–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q232.1Klay Thompson makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 61 – 64 LAL · DAL 21% → 28% +7DAL 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q39:40Brandon Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 69 – 68 LAL · DAL 31% → 40% +9DAL 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q36:22Marcus Smart makes 27-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)DAL 73 – 79 LAL · LAL 71% → 79% +8LAL 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q34:18Jarred Vanderbilt makes 22-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)DAL 78 – 86 LAL · LAL 77% → 84% +7LAL 77% → 84%+7 pts
- Q33:39Maxi Kleber makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)DAL 80 – 89 LAL · LAL 80% → 87% +7LAL 80% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -6.5
- ML DAL +210 / LAL -258
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 60.3%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -223
- DAL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.5 – 122.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −54 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +72 Elo | LAL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.1 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 116.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.2 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 115.39th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.6 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–17 | Road vs home | 14–1013th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301434 | Elo rating | 151714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–30 | 29–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 21–10 |
| Underdog | 18–18 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–5 LAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Jan 24LAL 116 @ DAL 110Picked LAL 61%Hit
- Nov 28DAL 119 @ LAL 129Picked LAL 78%Hit
- Apr 9LAL 112 @ DAL 97Picked LAL 64%Hit
- Feb 25DAL 99 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 76%Hit
- Jan 7LAL 97 @ DAL 118Picked LAL 68%Miss
- Jan 17DAL 110 @ LAL 127Picked DAL 52%Miss
- Dec 12LAL 125 @ DAL 127Picked LAL 53%Miss
- Nov 22DAL 104 @ LAL 101Picked DAL 56%Hit