Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints34
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds14
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints27
- Collin GillespieAssists6
- Oso IghodaroRebounds12
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game110–113
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime110–113
- 2OT0.0(00:00) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)110–113
- 2OT0.0Jalen Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)110–113
- 2OT1.1Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Jett Howard110–110
- 2OT1.1Suns Full timeout110–110
- 2OT2.9Jevon Carter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)110–110
- 2OT5.7Jett Howard enters the game for Jonathan Isaac107–110
- 2OT5.7Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Mark Williams107–110
- 2OT5.7Magic Full timeout107–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q456.6Anthony Black makes 3-foot running dunkORL 96 – 96 PHX · ORL 22% → 49% +27ORL 22% → 49%+27 pts
- OT1:47Grayson Allen makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)ORL 101 – 101 PHX · PHX 22% → 52% +30PHX 22% → 52%+30 pts
- OT1:03Paolo Banchero makes 2-foot driving dunkORL 103 – 103 PHX · ORL 23% → 49% +26ORL 23% → 49%+26 pts
- 2OT2.9Jevon Carter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)ORL 110 – 110 PHX · ORL <1% → 50% +50ORL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- 2OT0.0Jalen Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)ORL 110 – 113 PHX · PHX 53% → 100% +47PHX 53% → 100%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -3.5
- ML ORL +136 / PHX -162
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- PHX: Elo 62.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -146
- ORL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 107.5 – 111.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −26 | ORL: Usual rotation · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +87 Elo | PHX 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 113.324th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 112.05th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.023rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 18–109th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 19th of 301467 | Elo rating | 153213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–32 | 35–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 18–9 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 24–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–1 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.