Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Jalen GreenPoints26
- Collin GillespieAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds10
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints20
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–121
- Q411.4shot clock turnover94–121
- Q436.0Khaman Maluach offensive foul turnover94–121
- Q436.0Khaman Maluach offensive charge94–121
- Q453.0Dylan Harper makes 19-foot pullup jump shot94–121
- Q41:07Carter Bryant defensive rebound94–119
- Q41:09Jamaree Bouyea misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot94–119
- Q41:22Carter Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)94–119
- Q41:31Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound94–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:40Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)PHX 6 – 9 SA · SA 70% → 76% +5SA 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q17:52Jalen Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 11 – 9 SA · PHX 28% → 34% +6PHX 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q13:25Dylan Harper makes 23-foot running jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)PHX 18 – 24 SA · SA 75% → 80% +5SA 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q11:35Collin Gillespie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 23 – 28 SA · PHX 17% → 22% +5PHX 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q210:57Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot running jump shot (Harrison Barnes assists)PHX 25 – 36 SA · SA 83% → 87% +4SA 83% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -7.5
- ML PHX +230 / SA -285
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4.5
- SA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- SA: Elo 67.6%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -244
- PHX +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.0 – 118.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +47 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +128 Elo | SA 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 112.49th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +5.75th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 115.57th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.03rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.0 | Pace | 102.013th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 19–63rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 11th of 301544 | Elo rating | 15897th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–20 | 32–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 20–17 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–4 SA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Nov 23SA 102 @ PHX 111Picked PHX 52%Hit
- Nov 2SA 118 @ PHX 130Picked SA 67%Miss
- Apr 11SA 98 @ PHX 117Picked PHX 67%Hit
- Feb 20PHX 109 @ SA 120Picked PHX 57%Miss
- Dec 3SA 93 @ PHX 104Picked PHX 71%Hit
- Mar 25PHX 102 @ SA 104Picked PHX 74%Miss
- Mar 23PHX 131 @ SA 106Picked PHX 69%Hit
- Nov 2SA 132 @ PHX 121Picked PHX 60%Miss