San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints27
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Warriors- Draymond GreenPoints17
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Draymond GreenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–113
- Q420.2shot clock turnover126–113
- Q442.7Dylan Harper defensive rebound126–113
- Q446.9Gui Santos misses 27-foot three point jumper126–113
- Q455.0De'Aaron Fox makes 2-foot running dunk126–113
- Q458.3Draymond Green lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)124–113
- Q41:04Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2124–113
- Q41:04Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2123–113
- Q41:04Moses Moody shooting foul122–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:38Gary Payton II makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)SA 56 – 65 GS · GS 54% → 62% +8GS 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q311:36De'Anthony Melton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)SA 63 – 70 GS · GS 49% → 58% +9GS 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q311:06Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)SA 63 – 73 GS · GS 58% → 67% +9GS 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q33:59Quinten Post makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)SA 81 – 89 GS · GS 58% → 68% +10GS 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q32:36De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SA 86 – 91 GS · SA 31% → 41% +11SA 31% → 41%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -7.5
- ML SA -238 / GS +195
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2
- SA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- SA: Elo 58.2%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- SA -208
- GS +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.0 – 106.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +40 | −60 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −30 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +57 Elo | SA 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 115.616th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 113.510th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.5 | Margin | +2.111th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 111.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.816th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 18–96th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 7th of 301579 | Elo rating | 154612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−60 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis left achilles tendon−30 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–23 | 25–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–32 | 31–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–6 GS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.