Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints40
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Magic- Desmond BanePoints30
- Paolo BancheroAssists9
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–108
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound113–108
- Q40.0Desmond Bane misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot113–108
- Q44.6Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2113–108
- Q44.6Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2112–108
- Q44.6Paolo Banchero personal take foul111–108
- Q45.7Anthony Black makes 26-foot three pointer (Paolo Banchero assists)111–108
- Q410.1Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jonathan Isaac111–105
- Q410.1Magic Full timeout111–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:02Jevon Carter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)HOU 90 – 93 ORL · ORL 47% → 62% +15ORL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q45:39Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 97 – 97 ORL · HOU 34% → 52% +18HOU 34% → 52%+18 pts
- Q43:07Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot layup (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 101 – 100 ORL · HOU 43% → 60% +16HOU 43% → 60%+16 pts
- Q42:20Alperen Sengun makes driving layupHOU 103 – 100 ORL · HOU 61% → 77% +16HOU 61% → 77%+16 pts
- Q41:53Reed Sheppard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 106 – 100 ORL · HOU 79% → 95% +15HOU 79% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML HOU -142 / ORL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -129
- ORL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.5 – 106.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +2 | +1 | HOU: Usual rotation · ORL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −36 | HOU crossed 1 time zone and ORL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +50 Elo | HOU 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 115.118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 114.612th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +0.516th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 111.812th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 17–97th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 8th of 301578 | Elo rating | 147720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–31 | 25–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–30 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–33 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–1 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.