Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints29
- Kevin LoveAssists5
- Kevin LoveRebounds9
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points31
- Kevin DurantAssists12
- Tari EasonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–125
- Q42.7shot clock turnover105–125
- Q427.3Aaron Holiday defensive rebound105–125
- Q428.6Ace Bailey misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot105–125
- Q439.6Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot105–125
- Q457.9Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2105–122
- Q457.9Isaiah Collier makes free throw 1 of 2104–122
- Q457.9Josh Okogie personal foul103–122
- Q41:04Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2103–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:40Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)UTAH 0 – 3 HOU · HOU 86% → 89% +3HOU 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q18:36Ace Bailey makes 2-foot running dunkUTAH 9 – 6 HOU · UTAH 16% → 19% +3UTAH 16% → 19%+3 pts
- Q17:46Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)UTAH 9 – 9 HOU · HOU 80% → 85% +4HOU 80% → 85%+4 pts
- Q16:23Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)UTAH 11 – 17 HOU · HOU 88% → 91% +3HOU 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q29:42Kevin Love makes 26-foot three pointer (Vince Williams Jr. assists)UTAH 35 – 40 HOU · UTAH 8% → 11% +3UTAH 8% → 11%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -13.5
- ML UTAH +575 / HOU -850
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9.5
- HOU 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 82.1%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -604
- UTAH +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 107.5 – 121.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1341 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −3 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +264 Elo | HOU 82.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 85.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 84.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 114.321st of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.9 | Points allowed | 109.44th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.7 | Margin | +4.96th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 115.29th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.7 | Defense rating | 110.35th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.0 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–21 | Road vs home | 18–75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 28th of 301341 | Elo rating | 15688th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–26 | 24–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 26–24 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 33–24 | 22–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–6 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Dec 1HOU 125 @ UTAH 133Picked HOU 81%Miss
- Nov 30HOU 129 @ UTAH 101Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Apr 2UTAH 105 @ HOU 143Picked HOU 89%Hit
- Mar 27HOU 121 @ UTAH 110Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Feb 22HOU 115 @ UTAH 124Picked HOU 74%Miss
- Apr 11HOU 121 @ UTAH 124Picked HOU 74%Miss
- Mar 29HOU 101 @ UTAH 100Picked HOU 68%Hit
- Mar 23UTAH 119 @ HOU 147Picked HOU 70%Hit