Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints22
- DeMar DeRozanAssists7
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds10
Rockets- Reed SheppardPoints28
- Alperen SengunAssists11
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–128
- Q43.1shot clock turnover97–128
- Q427.1Josh Okogie defensive rebound97–128
- Q427.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses tip shot97–128
- Q427.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. offensive rebound97–128
- Q428.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses tip shot97–128
- Q428.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. offensive rebound97–128
- Q432.1Daeqwon Plowden misses 27-foot three point jumper97–128
- Q439.3Daeqwon Plowden defensive rebound97–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:12Russell Westbrook makes 8-foot fade away jump shotSAC 2 – 0 HOU · SAC 14% → 17% +3SAC 14% → 17%+3 pts
- Q110:05Alperen Sengun makes driving layup (Tari Eason assists)SAC 2 – 2 HOU · HOU 83% → 85% +3HOU 83% → 85%+3 pts
- Q16:37Reed Sheppard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)SAC 6 – 11 HOU · HOU 87% → 90% +3HOU 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q16:03Kevin Durant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)SAC 8 – 14 HOU · HOU 88% → 91% +3HOU 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q12:00Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)SAC 22 – 29 HOU · HOU 88% → 91% +3HOU 88% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -13.5
- ML SAC +575 / HOU -850
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -10.5
- HOU 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 84.5%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -604
- SAC +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 104.5 – 118.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1352 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | −32 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +295 Elo | HOU 84.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 85.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 85.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 114.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 109.43rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.7 | Margin | +5.16th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 115.29th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 110.15th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–26 | Road vs home | 19–75th of 30 |
| 1st of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 27th of 301352 | Elo rating | 15738th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–36 | 25–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 21–32 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–4 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Jan 11HOU 98 @ SAC 111Picked HOU 85%Miss
- Dec 21HOU 124 @ SAC 125Picked HOU 83%Miss
- Dec 3SAC 95 @ HOU 121Picked HOU 89%Hit
- Mar 1SAC 113 @ HOU 103Picked HOU 61%Miss
- Jan 16HOU 127 @ SAC 132Picked SAC 64%Hit
- Dec 3HOU 111 @ SAC 120Picked SAC 53%Hit
- Mar 10HOU 112 @ SAC 104Picked SAC 63%Miss
- Nov 6SAC 97 @ HOU 122Picked HOU 53%Hit