Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints20
- Malik MonkAssists6
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds12
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints28
- Victor WembanyamaAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–139
- Q48.4shot clock turnover122–139
- Q433.5Doug McDermott makes 25-foot three point jumper (Precious Achiuwa assists)122–139
- Q443.1Kelly Olynyk 3 second turnover119–139
- Q41:03Doug McDermott makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)119–139
- Q41:09Devin Carter defensive rebound116–139
- Q41:13Carter Bryant misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot116–139
- Q41:25Precious Achiuwa makes free throw 2 of 2116–139
- Q41:25Kings offensive team rebound115–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:46Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)SAC 44 – 43 SA · SA 80% → 85% +5SA 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q24:30Keegan Murray makes 23-foot running jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 59 – 56 SA · SAC 15% → 21% +5SAC 15% → 21%+5 pts
- Q34:23Dylan Harper makes 2-foot two point shot (Luke Kornet assists)SAC 88 – 91 SA · SA 81% → 85% +5SA 81% → 85%+5 pts
- Q33:51Harrison Barnes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)SAC 88 – 94 SA · SA 85% → 90% +5SA 85% → 90%+5 pts
- Q31:04Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot running jump shot (Dylan Harper assists)SAC 94 – 102 SA · SA 88% → 93% +5SA 88% → 93%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- SA -18.5
- ML SAC +950 / SA -1650
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -16
- SA 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- SA: Elo 93.1%, market 90.8%
- Fair odds
- SA -990
- SAC +990 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 106.0 – 124.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1339 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −83 | +46 | SAC: Missing Dylan Cardwell −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +451 Elo | SA 93.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 92.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 92.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 90.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 118.17th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 112.16th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.9 | Margin | +6.04th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 115.77th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.913th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 303–25 | Road vs home | 20–63rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 28th of 301339 | Elo rating | 16017th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−83 Elo- Dylan Cardwell left ankle sprain−9 Elo
Spurs
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–36 | 33–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 21–17 |
| Underdog | 19–32 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–30 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–3 SA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 16SAC 110 @ SA 123Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 7SA 109 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Dec 6SAC 140 @ SA 113Picked SAC 69%Hit
- Dec 1SA 127 @ SAC 125Picked SAC 68%Miss
- Nov 11SAC 96 @ SA 116Picked SAC 57%Miss
- Mar 7SA 129 @ SAC 131Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Feb 22SA 122 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Nov 17SAC 129 @ SA 120Picked SAC 60%Hit