Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints25
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds13
Grizzlies- Javon SmallPoints21
- Javon SmallAssists9
- Rayan RupertRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–114
- Q48.9Walter Clayton Jr. bad pass
turnover (Russell Westbrook steals)123–114
- Q410.4Cam Spencer enters the game for Taylor Hendricks123–114
- Q410.4Grizzlies Full timeout123–114
- Q410.4Precious Achiuwa makes finger roll layup (Russell Westbrook assists)123–114
- Q434.0GG Jackson enters the game for Jahmai Mashack121–114
- Q434.0Jaylen Wells offensive foul turnover121–114
- Q434.0Jaylen Wells offensive foul121–114
- Q441.0Javon Small defensive rebound121–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:13GG Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)SAC 66 – 68 MEM · MEM 51% → 60% +9MEM 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q35:34Nique Clifford makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 84 – 74 MEM · SAC 69% → 78% +8SAC 69% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:08Javon Small makes 25-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)SAC 84 – 77 MEM · MEM 22% → 30% +8MEM 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q34:35Javon Small makes 25-foot three pointer (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)SAC 84 – 80 MEM · MEM 30% → 40% +10MEM 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q49:46Daeqwon Plowden makes 24-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)SAC 97 – 91 MEM · SAC 61% → 73% +12SAC 61% → 73%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML SAC +120 / MEM -142
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5
- MEM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.9 pts
- MEM: Elo 69.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -129
- SAC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 115.5 – 118.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −85 | −97 | SAC: Missing Dylan Cardwell −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Cedric Coward −16, Kyle Anderson −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +141 Elo | MEM 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 115.517th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 117.722nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.1 | Margin | −2.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 111.025th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.7 | Defense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.3 | Pace | 103.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–26 | Road vs home | 11–1523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 28th of 301337 | Elo rating | 145422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−85 Elo- Dylan Cardwell left ankle sprain−11 Elo
Grizzlies
−97 Elo- Cedric Coward right knee sprain−16 Elo
- Kyle Anderson right knee soreness−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–36 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 20–32 | 15–22 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30 | 26–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–4 MEM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Feb 4MEM 129 @ SAC 125Picked SAC 57%Miss
- Nov 30MEM 115 @ SAC 107Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Nov 20SAC 96 @ MEM 137Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Mar 17MEM 122 @ SAC 132Picked SAC 59%Hit
- Jan 3MEM 133 @ SAC 138Picked SAC 60%Hit
- Dec 5SAC 110 @ MEM 115Picked MEM 58%Hit
- Mar 18MEM 111 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Jan 29SAC 103 @ MEM 94Picked SAC 57%Hit