Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints36
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints22
- Luka DoncicAssists15
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–109
- Q40.0(00:00) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)110–109
- Q41.0Lakers offensive team rebound110–109
- Q42.2LeBron James misses three point shot110–109
- Q46.7Lakers Full timeout110–109
- Q46.7Wendell Carter Jr. makes layup110–109
- Q48.7Anthony Black offensive rebound108–109
- Q410.5Paolo Banchero misses 13-foot pullup jump shot108–109
- Q426.3LeBron James makes 1-foot dunk (Luka Doncic assists)108–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:29Luka Doncic makes 23-foot fade away jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)ORL 101 – 103 LAL · LAL 47% → 70% +22LAL 47% → 70%+22 pts
- Q42:14Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)ORL 103 – 106 LAL · LAL 54% → 80% +26LAL 54% → 80%+26 pts
- Q435.4Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 108 – 107 LAL · ORL 16% → 66% +50ORL 16% → 66%+50 pts
- Q426.3LeBron James makes 1-foot dunk (Luka Doncic assists)ORL 108 – 109 LAL · LAL 31% → 72% +41LAL 31% → 72%+41 pts
- Q46.7Wendell Carter Jr. makes layupORL 110 – 109 LAL · ORL 14% → 85% +72ORL 14% → 85%+72 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -6.5
- ML ORL +200 / LAL -245
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4.5
- LAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 67.7%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -213
- ORL +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.0 – 117.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | +37 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +129 Elo | LAL 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 116.118th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 115.210th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 115.624th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.421st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 16–1113th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 20th of 301471 | Elo rating | 151813th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–32 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 22–11 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders | 29–27 | 31–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–1 LAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.