Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints32
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds12
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists5
- Austin ReavesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–89
- Q421.6Ron Harper Jr. makes two point shot (Hugo Gonzalez assists)111–89
- Q440.3Celtics defensive team rebound109–89
- Q442.7Dalton Knecht misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot109–89
- Q449.9Dalton Knecht defensive rebound109–89
- Q452.6Payton Pritchard misses 10-foot pullup jump shot109–89
- Q41:01Amari Williams defensive rebound109–89
- Q41:05Kobe Bufkin misses 27-foot running jump shot109–89
- Q41:10Payton Pritchard bad pass
turnover (Luke Kennard steals)109–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:18Jarred Vanderbilt makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)BOS 31 – 33 LAL · LAL 47% → 54% +8LAL 47% → 54%+8 pts
- Q27:51Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 34 – 33 LAL · BOS 46% → 53% +8BOS 46% → 53%+8 pts
- Q24:55Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)BOS 40 – 39 LAL · LAL 39% → 46% +8LAL 39% → 46%+8 pts
- Q22:47Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 49 – 43 LAL · BOS 59% → 67% +8BOS 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q21:13Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)BOS 52 – 46 LAL · LAL 25% → 33% +7LAL 25% → 33%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -1.5
- ML BOS -115 / LAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- LAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.0 – 114.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1646 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +44 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 116.212th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 116.118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.0 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 115.624th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 16–1012th of 30 |
| 30th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301646 | Elo rating | 153314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–24 | 30–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–19 | 22–11 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders | 21–34 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.