Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints26
- Jaylen BrownAssists13
- Jaylen BrownRebounds15
Warriors- De'Anthony MeltonPoints18
- Pat SpencerAssists7
- Al HorfordRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–110
- Q418.9Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup121–110
- Q426.0Al Horford defensive rebound121–108
- Q429.8Payton Pritchard misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot121–108
- Q453.0Jaylen Brown defensive rebound121–108
- Q453.0Derrick White blocks De'Anthony Melton 's 26-foot three point pullup jump shot121–108
- Q459.6Neemias Queta makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jaylen Brown assists)121–108
- Q41:14Neemias Queta defensive rebound119–108
- Q41:15Gui Santos misses 6-foot two point shot119–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:39Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three pointer (Derrick White assists)BOS 6 – 7 GS · BOS 57% → 63% +6BOS 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q19:21Pat Spencer makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 6 – 10 GS · GS 37% → 43% +6GS 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q18:48Baylor Scheierman makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 9 – 10 GS · BOS 57% → 63% +6BOS 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q17:22De'Anthony Melton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)BOS 13 – 15 GS · GS 33% → 39% +6GS 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q15:45Ron Harper Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 20 – 18 GS · BOS 63% → 69% +6BOS 63% → 69%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML BOS -218 / GS +180
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -192
- GS +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 108.5 – 103.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −42 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +96 Elo | BOS 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 115.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 113.711th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.9 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 113.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 101.716th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 18–109th of 30 |
| 30th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301638 | Elo rating | 153612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–24 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–19 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–34 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.