San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints22
- Stephon CastleAssists10
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds9
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints21
- Tyrese MartinAssists4
- Tyrese MaxeyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–91
- Q40.4shot clock turnover131–91
- Q425.0Justin Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)131–91
- Q426.7Tyrese Martin offensive rebound131–88
- Q429.9Trendon Watford misses 28-foot three point jumper131–88
- Q449.8Bismack Biyombo makes 5-foot hook shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)131–88
- Q41:03Jabari Walker out of bounds lost ball turnover129–88
- Q41:13Jordan McLaughlin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)129–88
- Q41:28Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 1126–88
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:46Justin Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)SA 20 – 19 PHI · PHI 22% → 28% +6PHI 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q11:45Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)SA 22 – 22 PHI · PHI 24% → 30% +6PHI 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q154.1Carter Bryant makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 27 – 22 PHI · SA 74% → 79% +5SA 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q211:31Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three pointer (Justin Edwards assists)SA 32 – 28 PHI · PHI 18% → 23% +5PHI 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q211:10Dylan Harper makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 35 – 28 PHI · SA 77% → 82% +5SA 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -7.5
- ML SA -305 / PHI +245
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SA: Elo 71.5%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -260
- PHI +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 119.5 – 112.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1603 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | −57 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +159 Elo | SA 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 116.411th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 115.918th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +0.515th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 113.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–11 | Road vs home | 16–1516th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 30 |
| 6th of 301603 | Elo rating | 151216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–26 | 34–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–20 | 20–13 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–36 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.