Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints27
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Pelicans- Jordan PoolePoints23
- Zion WilliamsonAssists8
- DeAndre JordanRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–126
- Q420.5Justin Edwards makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Cameron Payne assists)111–126
- Q429.6Adem Bona defensive rebound109–126
- Q432.7Jordan Hawkins misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot109–126
- Q449.3Pelicans defensive team rebound109–126
- Q450.2Tyrese Martin misses 24-foot three point jumper109–126
- Q458.4Adem Bona defensive rebound109–126
- Q41:02Bryce McGowens misses 24-foot three point jumper109–126
- Q41:2376ers offensive team rebound109–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:01Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Andre Drummond assists)PHI 79 – 76 NO · PHI 56% → 66% +10PHI 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q32:45Jabari Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 89 – 84 NO · PHI 63% → 73% +10PHI 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q32:14Jordan Poole makes 24-foot running jump shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)PHI 89 – 89 NO · NO 33% → 44% +11NO 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q347.1Karlo Matkovic makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jordan Poole assists)PHI 89 – 94 NO · NO 53% → 64% +12NO 53% → 64%+12 pts
- Q410:55Karlo Matkovic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)PHI 93 – 102 NO · NO 70% → 80% +10NO 70% → 80%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML PHI -170 / NO +142
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.9%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -152
- NO +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 119.5 – 116.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1350 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −83 | −2 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +48 Elo | PHI 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 114.620th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 120.727th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −6.125th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 111.324th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 117.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.1 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 9–2129th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301475 | Elo rating | 135026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–24 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–12 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.