San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Julian ChampagniePoints26
- Dylan HarperAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds8
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points25
- Egor DeminAssists9
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–110
- Q41.5shot clock turnover126–110
- Q423.2Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound126–110
- Q425.5Danny Wolf misses two point shot126–110
- Q429.6Danny Wolf defensive rebound126–110
- Q432.3Carter Bryant misses 11-foot pullup jump shot126–110
- Q441.2Carter Bryant defensive rebound126–110
- Q445.1Jalen Wilson misses 27-foot three point jumper126–110
- Q455.5Ochai Agbaji defensive rebound126–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:46Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 5 – 2 BKN · SA 81% → 85% +4SA 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q110:27Nolan Traore makes 25-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)SA 5 – 5 BKN · BKN 15% → 19% +4BKN 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q38:34Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)SA 75 – 69 BKN · BKN 10% → 14% +5BKN 10% → 14%+5 pts
- Q37:09Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 83 – 72 BKN · SA 89% → 93% +4SA 89% → 93%+4 pts
- Q36:18Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)SA 83 – 75 BKN · BKN 7% → 11% +4BKN 7% → 11%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -10.5
- ML SA -575 / BKN +425
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -11
- SA 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- SA: Elo 85.2%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -447
- BKN +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 117.0 – 106.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1620 | 1318 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +55 | −23 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +305 Elo | SA 85.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 83.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 106.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 114.813th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.3 | Margin | −7.927th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 108.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 116.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.1 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–10 | Road vs home | 8–2030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 5th of 301620 | Elo rating | 131830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–25 | 26–31 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–19 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 23–30 |
| Overs–unders | 24–35 | 26–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–1 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.