Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Marvin Bagley IIIPoints22
- Brandon WilliamsAssists10
- Max ChristieRebounds7
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points26
- Nic ClaxtonAssists9
- Noah ClowneyRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–114
- Q40.8shot clock turnover123–114
- Q421.7Tyus Jones defensive rebound123–114
- Q427.9Michael Porter Jr. misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot123–114
- Q430.6Tyus Jones enters the game for Max Christie123–114
- Q430.6Miles Kelly enters the game for Marvin Bagley III123–114
- Q430.6AJ Johnson enters the game for Caleb Martin123–114
- Q430.6Dwight Powell enters the game for Brandon Williams123–114
- Q430.6Nets Full timeout123–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:21Terance Mann makes 24-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)DAL 104 – 99 BKN · BKN 15% → 26% +11BKN 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q47:42Terance Mann makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 104 – 102 BKN · BKN 25% → 39% +14BKN 25% → 39%+14 pts
- Q46:56Klay Thompson makes 30-foot three point jumper (Marvin Bagley III assists)DAL 107 – 102 BKN · DAL 62% → 76% +14DAL 62% → 76%+14 pts
- Q45:47Brandon Williams makes driving layupDAL 109 – 104 BKN · DAL 68% → 78% +10DAL 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q45:34Nolan Traore makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Nic Claxton assists)DAL 109 – 106 BKN · BKN 22% → 32% +10BKN 22% → 32%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML DAL -120 / BKN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -109
- BKN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 114.0 – 112.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1325 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −23 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +67 Elo | DAL 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.3 | Points scored | 106.830th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 114.712th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.5 | Margin | −7.928th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 107.929th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 115.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 26th of 306–19 | Road vs home | 8–1930th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301423 | Elo rating | 132530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–31 | 26–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 23–29 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31 | 25–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–1 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.