Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Khris MiddletonPoints18
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds13
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints40
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–122
- Q41.8Jaden McDaniels lost ball turnover (Klay Thompson steals)111–122
- Q48.6Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound111–122
- Q411.4Naji Marshall misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot111–122
- Q417.9P.J. Washington defensive rebound111–122
- Q421.0Rudy Gobert misses 25-foot jump bank shot111–122
- Q438.8Daniel Gafford makes dunk (Klay Thompson assists)111–122
- Q442.0Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot running dunk (Naz Reid assists)109–122
- Q444.6Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound109–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:42Klay Thompson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)DAL 101 – 103 MIN · DAL 15% → 26% +11DAL 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q46:55Tyus Jones makes 4-foot driving floating jump shotDAL 103 – 103 MIN · DAL 26% → 35% +10DAL 26% → 35%+10 pts
- Q46:37Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 103 – 106 MIN · MIN 64% → 79% +14MIN 64% → 79%+14 pts
- Q46:13Tyus Jones makes 10-foot jumper (Klay Thompson assists)DAL 105 – 106 MIN · DAL 21% → 31% +9DAL 21% → 31%+9 pts
- Q45:30Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Julius Randle assists)DAL 105 – 109 MIN · MIN 69% → 83% +14MIN 69% → 83%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -13.5
- ML DAL +500 / MIN -700
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7
- MIN 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 75.3%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -525
- DAL +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 113.0 – 126.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −4 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +194 Elo | MIN 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 78.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.9 | Points scored | 119.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 114.812th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.5 | Margin | +4.97th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 115.86th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.6 | Pace | 102.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–18 | Road vs home | 19–107th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301421 | Elo rating | 15729th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–31 | 25–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 19–26 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–8 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.
- Jan 28MIN 118 @ DAL 105Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Nov 17DAL 96 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 85%Hit
- Jan 22MIN 115 @ DAL 114Picked MIN 59%Hit
- Dec 25MIN 105 @ DAL 99Picked DAL 65%Miss
- Oct 29DAL 120 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 61%Miss
- May 30DAL 124 @ MIN 103PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- May 28MIN 105 @ DAL 100PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss
- May 26MIN 107 @ DAL 116PlayoffsPicked DAL 55%Hit