Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Khris MiddletonPoints25
- Khris MiddletonAssists7
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints30
- Andrew NembhardAssists11
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–130
- Q47.3Naji Marshall defensive rebound134–130
- Q49.7Jarace Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper134–130
- Q413.5Jarace Walker defensive rebound134–130
- Q416.3Naji Marshall misses free throw 2 of 2134–130
- Q416.3Mavericks offensive team rebound134–130
- Q416.3Naji Marshall misses free throw 1 of 2134–130
- Q416.3Ben Sheppard personal take foul134–130
- Q420.3Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 2134–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:11Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Quenton Jackson assists)DAL 96 – 93 IND · IND 27% → 38% +10IND 27% → 38%+10 pts
- Q48:48Quenton Jackson makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Pascal Siakam assists)DAL 109 – 104 IND · IND 16% → 27% +10IND 16% → 27%+10 pts
- Q46:50Jarace Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Micah Potter assists)DAL 115 – 110 IND · IND 13% → 24% +11IND 13% → 24%+11 pts
- Q44:23Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Quenton Jackson assists)DAL 123 – 119 IND · IND 11% → 24% +13IND 11% → 24%+13 pts
- Q44:03Khris Middleton makes 23-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 126 – 119 IND · DAL 77% → 90% +13DAL 77% → 90%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML DAL -118 / IND -102
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -0.5
- DAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 48.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -107
- IND +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 119.5 – 118.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | −49 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Missing T.J. McConnell −18, Aaron Nesmith −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +8 Elo | IND 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.9 | Points scored | 111.228th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 118.724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.6 | Margin | −7.526th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 107.730th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 114.921st of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 10–1827th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301417 | Elo rating | 140224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−49 Elo- T.J. McConnell sore right hamstring−18 Elo
- Aaron Nesmith sprained right ankle−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–31 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31 | 24–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–4 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.