Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Jarace WalkerPoints19
- Jarace WalkerAssists7
- Jarace WalkerRebounds14
Wizards- Anthony GillPoints13
- Sharife CooperAssists7
- Anthony GillRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–112
- Q44.9Alondes Williams defensive rebound105–112
- Q47.6Taelon Peter misses 24-foot three point jumper105–112
- Q410.5Pacers Full timeout105–112
- Q410.5Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2105–112
- Q410.5Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2105–111
- Q410.5Taelon Peter personal foul105–110
- Q416.1Kobe Brown personal foul105–110
- Q428.2Kobe Brown lost ball turnover (Bub Carrington steals)105–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:15Taelon Peter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)IND 87 – 90 WSH · IND 27% → 39% +12IND 27% → 39%+12 pts
- Q49:32Taelon Peter makes 24-foot running jump shot (Jarace Walker assists)IND 90 – 90 WSH · IND 38% → 52% +14IND 38% → 52%+14 pts
- Q47:04Bub Carrington makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Sharife Cooper assists)IND 92 – 94 WSH · WSH 43% → 59% +16WSH 43% → 59%+16 pts
- Q46:18Micah Potter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)IND 95 – 94 WSH · IND 40% → 57% +17IND 40% → 57%+17 pts
- Q44:49Sharife Cooper makes driving layup (Kadary Richmond assists)IND 97 – 100 WSH · WSH 55% → 68% +13WSH 55% → 68%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML IND -130 / WSH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- IND 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- IND: Elo 50.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 118.0 – 115.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1315 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −101 | −31 | IND: Missing T.J. McConnell −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +2 Elo | IND 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 112.225th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 123.129th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.5 | Margin | −11.030th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 108.428th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 119.029th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.4 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 9–1827th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 24th of 301421 | Elo rating | 131530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−101 Elo- T.J. McConnell sore right hamstring−21 Elo
Wizards
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–27 | 22–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 21–29 |
| Overs–unders | 23–32 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 7–2 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Dec 14WSH 108 @ IND 89Picked IND 78%Miss
- Nov 28WSH 86 @ IND 119Picked IND 69%Hit
- Apr 8WSH 98 @ IND 104Picked IND 93%Hit
- Mar 27IND 162 @ WSH 109Picked IND 84%Hit
- Feb 12IND 134 @ WSH 130Picked IND 79%Hit
- Nov 24WSH 103 @ IND 115Picked IND 85%Hit
- Jan 10WSH 104 @ IND 112Picked IND 72%Hit
- Dec 15IND 123 @ WSH 137Picked IND 70%Miss