Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Jay HuffPoints22
- Kam JonesAssists11
- Jarace WalkerRebounds12
Wizards- Alondes WilliamsPoints25
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Alondes WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–131
- Q411.8Sharife Cooper defensive rebound118–131
- Q415.4Jarace Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper118–131
- Q418.8Quenton Jackson offensive rebound118–131
- Q420.1Kobe Brown misses 25-foot three point jumper118–131
- Q427.9Jamir Watkins makes 1-foot driving dunk118–131
- Q428.0Jamir Watkins offensive rebound118–129
- Q430.8Sharife Cooper misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot118–129
- Q454.6Taelon Peter makes 1-foot layup (Jarace Walker assists)118–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:23Kadary Richmond makes 27-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)IND 84 – 84 WSH · WSH 41% → 51% +11WSH 41% → 51%+11 pts
- Q31:02Micah Potter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Quenton Jackson assists)IND 89 – 88 WSH · IND 41% → 53% +12IND 41% → 53%+12 pts
- Q325.8Quenton Jackson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)IND 92 – 90 WSH · IND 45% → 57% +12IND 45% → 57%+12 pts
- Q410:57Micah Potter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)IND 95 – 94 WSH · IND 40% → 53% +13IND 40% → 53%+13 pts
- Q46:29Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)IND 102 – 106 WSH · IND 15% → 28% +12IND 15% → 28%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wizards 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -1.5
- ML IND +102 / WSH -122
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -0.5
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.0%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- IND +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 114.5 – 116.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | WSH and IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −79 | −5 | IND: Missing Andrew Nembhard −4, Aaron Nesmith −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +21 Elo | WSH 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 52.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 112.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 122.829th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.4 | Margin | −10.629th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 108.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 118.528th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.5 | Pace | 103.28th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–23 | Road vs home | 10–1826th of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 30 |
| 24th of 301413 | Elo rating | 132330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−79 Elo- Andrew Nembhard lower back injury management−4 Elo
- Aaron Nesmith right ankle injury−4 Elo
Wizards
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–28 | 23–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 7–3 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 19IND 105 @ WSH 112Picked IND 54%Miss
- Dec 14WSH 108 @ IND 89Picked IND 78%Miss
- Nov 28WSH 86 @ IND 119Picked IND 69%Hit
- Apr 8WSH 98 @ IND 104Picked IND 93%Hit
- Mar 27IND 162 @ WSH 109Picked IND 84%Hit
- Feb 12IND 134 @ WSH 130Picked IND 79%Hit
- Nov 24WSH 103 @ IND 115Picked IND 85%Hit
- Jan 10WSH 104 @ IND 112Picked IND 72%Hit