Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points18
- Michael Porter Jr.Assists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints26
- Dyson DanielsAssists8
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–115
- Q410.6CJ McCollum defensive rebound104–115
- Q413.7Nic Claxton misses 26-foot three point jumper104–115
- Q432.8Jalen Johnson makes running dunk (CJ McCollum assists)104–115
- Q438.3Nolan Traore bad pass
turnover (Dyson Daniels steals)104–113
- Q447.1Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2104–113
- Q447.1Hawks offensive team rebound104–112
- Q447.1Jalen Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2104–112
- Q447.1Noah Clowney personal foul104–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:32Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)BKN 98 – 91 ATL · BKN 55% → 69% +13BKN 55% → 69%+13 pts
- Q45:05CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)BKN 104 – 100 ATL · ATL 19% → 35% +16ATL 19% → 35%+16 pts
- Q43:27Jalen Johnson makes 15-foot pullup jump shotBKN 104 – 102 ATL · ATL 28% → 42% +14ATL 28% → 42%+14 pts
- Q42:28CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)BKN 104 – 105 ATL · ATL 39% → 65% +27ATL 39% → 65%+27 pts
- Q41:53Jalen Johnson makes 2-foot two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)BKN 104 – 107 ATL · ATL 66% → 83% +17ATL 66% → 83%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -9.5
- ML BKN +320 / ATL -410
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -7
- ATL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 74.8%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -338
- BKN +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 109.0 – 118.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1330 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | −8 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +189 Elo | ATL 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.8 | Points scored | 116.910th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 118.623rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.9 | Margin | −1.619th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 113.918th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–21 | Road vs home | 10–1624th of 30 |
| 8th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 30 |
| 30th of 301330 | Elo rating | 146618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–29 | 27–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 23–28 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–30 | 29–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–4 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Oct 29ATL 117 @ BKN 112Picked ATL 73%Hit
- Apr 10ATL 133 @ BKN 109Picked ATL 84%Hit
- Mar 16ATL 114 @ BKN 122Picked ATL 67%Miss
- Oct 23BKN 116 @ ATL 120Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Mar 2ATL 102 @ BKN 114Picked BKN 56%Hit
- Feb 29ATL 97 @ BKN 124Picked BKN 50%Hit
- Dec 6BKN 114 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 51%Miss
- Nov 22BKN 145 @ ATL 147Picked ATL 57%Hit