San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints21
- Dylan HarperAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds8
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints20
- Brandon IngramAssists4
- Brandon IngramRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–107
- Q43.1Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound110–107
- Q45.4Brandon Ingram misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot110–107
- Q48.2Stephon Castle enters the game for Luke Kornet110–107
- Q48.2Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Trayce Jackson-Davis110–107
- Q48.2Immanuel Quickley enters the game for Jakob Poeltl110–107
- Q48.4Raptors Full timeout110–107
- Q48.4Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound110–107
- Q48.7Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 2 of 2110–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:37De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 96 – 96 TOR · SA 39% → 56% +17SA 39% → 56%+17 pts
- Q45:42Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot running jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 99 – 96 TOR · SA 56% → 72% +17SA 56% → 72%+17 pts
- Q43:42Victor Wembanyama makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 106 – 100 TOR · SA 75% → 89% +14SA 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q41:47Jakob Poeltl makes tip shotSA 106 – 104 TOR · TOR 12% → 27% +14TOR 12% → 27%+14 pts
- Q41:24De'Aaron Fox makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotSA 108 – 104 TOR · SA 75% → 90% +15SA 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML SA -218 / TOR +180
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- SA: Elo 68.7%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -192
- TOR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 118.0 – 112.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1617 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +54 | +46 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +136 Elo | SA 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 65.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 113.723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 111.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.3 | Margin | +1.912th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 112.516th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 110.57th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–10 | Road vs home | 16–1416th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 5th of 301617 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–24 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–34 | 23–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–1 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.