Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Tyrese MaxeyRebounds9
Pacers- Micah PotterPoints23
- Jarace WalkerAssists6
- Kobe BrownRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–114
- Q49.8Jay Huff defensive rebound135–114
- Q412.6Andre Drummond misses 23-foot three point jumper135–114
- Q431.3Jay Huff makes dunk (Kobe Brown assists)135–114
- Q443.5Dalen Terry makes free throw 2 of 2135–112
- Q443.5Dalen Terry makes free throw 1 of 2134–112
- Q443.5Ben Sheppard shooting foul133–112
- Q444.2Ben Sheppard bad pass
turnover (Dalen Terry steals)133–112
- Q445.5Trendon Watford makes 3-foot turnaround jump shot133–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:25Ben Sheppard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)PHI 9 – 13 IND · IND 22% → 27% +5IND 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q17:26Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 29-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 14 – 15 IND · PHI 73% → 78% +5PHI 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q16:07Andrew Nembhard makes 29-foot three pointer (Micah Potter assists)PHI 14 – 18 IND · IND 22% → 28% +5IND 22% → 28%+5 pts
- Q13:12Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Adem Bona assists)PHI 26 – 30 IND · PHI 65% → 71% +6PHI 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q13:02Micah Potter makes 27-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)PHI 26 – 33 IND · IND 29% → 35% +6IND 29% → 35%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -10.5
- ML PHI -535 / IND +400
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 70.9%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -421
- IND +421 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 122.5 – 112.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −75 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Pascal Siakam −45, Aaron Nesmith −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +155 Elo | PHI 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 76.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 75.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 111.528th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 119.025th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −7.526th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 107.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 115.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.810th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 10–1927th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Elo rating | 139524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−75 Elo- Pascal Siakam sprained left wrist−45 Elo
- Aaron Nesmith sprained right ankle−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–25 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–13 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders | 30–27 | 25–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–5 IND in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Jan 19IND 104 @ PHI 113Picked PHI 69%Hit
- Dec 12IND 105 @ PHI 115Picked PHI 67%Hit
- Mar 14IND 112 @ PHI 100Picked IND 84%Hit
- Jan 18PHI 102 @ IND 115Picked IND 79%Hit
- Dec 13IND 121 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 69%Miss
- Oct 27PHI 118 @ IND 114Picked IND 75%Miss
- Jan 25PHI 122 @ IND 134Picked PHI 59%Miss
- Nov 14IND 132 @ PHI 126Picked PHI 62%Miss