Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints39
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Andre DrummondRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Ayo DosunmuAssists4
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–108
- Q40.1Jaylen Clark lost ball turnover (Dalen Terry steals)135–108
- Q43.7shot clock turnover135–108
- Q427.7Julian Phillips makes free throw 2 of 2135–108
- Q427.7Julian Phillips makes free throw 1 of 2135–107
- Q427.7Tyrese Martin shooting foul135–106
- Q438.9Tyrese Martin makes driving layup135–106
- Q456.5Dalen Terry defensive rebound133–106
- Q41:00Terrence Shannon Jr. misses 16-foot pullup jump shot133–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:09VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 65 – 54 MIN · PHI 53% → 62% +8PHI 53% → 62%+8 pts
- Q310:43VJ Edgecombe makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)PHI 71 – 58 MIN · PHI 61% → 70% +8PHI 61% → 70%+8 pts
- Q35:05Quentin Grimes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Adem Bona assists)PHI 82 – 68 MIN · PHI 71% → 79% +8PHI 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q33:37Bones Hyland makes 25-foot running jump shot (Mike Conley assists)PHI 84 – 75 MIN · MIN 24% → 33% +9MIN 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q33:06VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 87 – 75 MIN · PHI 68% → 77% +9PHI 68% → 77%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -9.5
- ML PHI +285 / MIN -360
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9
- MIN 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 80.8%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -301
- PHI +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 115.0 – 124.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −83 | −26 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Missing Rudy Gobert −21, Naz Reid −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +250 Elo | MIN 80.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 76.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 114.712th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +5.06th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 110.98th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.89th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 20–106th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 30 |
| 20th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15778th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−26 Elo- Rudy Gobert suspended by league−21 Elo
- Naz Reid right shoulder soreness−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–25 | 25–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–13 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 29–27 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.