Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints29
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists11
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–124
- Q413.3Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound117–124
- Q416.8Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot117–124
- Q424.3Kelly Oubre Jr. personal foul117–124
- Q428.4Heat Full timeout117–124
- Q429.2Joel Embiid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)117–124
- Q450.7VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound117–121
- Q453.5Tyler Herro misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot117–121
- Q41:07Joel Embiid enters the game for Adem Bona117–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:16Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 107 – 109 PHI · MIA 22% → 37% +15MIA 22% → 37%+15 pts
- Q45:54Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)MIA 107 – 112 PHI · PHI 63% → 78% +15PHI 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q45:28Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 110 – 112 PHI · MIA 21% → 36% +15MIA 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q42:44Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 117 – 116 PHI · MIA 32% → 57% +25MIA 32% → 57%+25 pts
- Q41:52Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)MIA 117 – 121 PHI · PHI 61% → 86% +25PHI 61% → 86%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML MIA +114 / PHI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- MIA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 119.0 – 121.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +28 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +38 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.0 | Points scored | 116.611th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 115.918th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +0.615th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 101.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 15–1519th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–25 | 33–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–14 | 19–13 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–2 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Nov 23MIA 127 @ PHI 117Picked PHI 52%Miss
- Apr 7PHI 105 @ MIA 117Picked MIA 81%Hit
- Mar 29MIA 118 @ PHI 95Picked MIA 73%Hit
- Feb 5MIA 108 @ PHI 101Picked PHI 54%Miss
- Nov 18PHI 89 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 55%Hit
- Apr 4PHI 109 @ MIA 105Picked MIA 56%Miss
- Mar 18MIA 91 @ PHI 98Picked PHI 53%Hit
- Feb 14MIA 109 @ PHI 104Picked PHI 57%Miss