Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Celtics- Neemias QuetaPoints27
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–114
- Q416.4shot clock turnover98–114
- Q438.4Sam Hauser defensive rebound98–114
- Q442.0VJ Edgecombe misses 25-foot three point jumper98–114
- Q450.6Baylor Scheierman makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)98–114
- Q41:11Neemias Queta defensive rebound98–111
- Q41:11Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot98–111
- Q41:19Neemias Queta makes two point shot98–111
- Q41:19Neemias Queta offensive rebound98–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:34Jordan Walsh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)PHI 25 – 22 BOS · BOS 59% → 66% +7BOS 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q33.1Tyrese Maxey makes 30-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)PHI 83 – 89 BOS · PHI 10% → 17% +7PHI 10% → 17%+7 pts
- Q411:23Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)PHI 83 – 92 BOS · BOS 83% → 90% +7BOS 83% → 90%+7 pts
- Q411:02Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Adem Bona assists)PHI 86 – 92 BOS · PHI 10% → 17% +7PHI 10% → 17%+7 pts
- Q49:57VJ Edgecombe makes 27-foot three pointerPHI 89 – 94 BOS · PHI 11% → 19% +8PHI 11% → 19%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML PHI +275 / BOS -345
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8.5
- BOS 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 79.9%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -291
- PHI +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 105.5 – 114.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1661 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −54 | +5 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +239 Elo | BOS 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 115.019th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 107.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +7.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 118.02nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 110.26th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.4 | Pace | 97.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 19–96th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 148030th of 30 |
| 14th of 301516 | Elo rating | 16612nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–25 | 34–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–13 | 24–19 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27 | 22–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–7 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Nov 11BOS 100 @ PHI 102Picked BOS 54%Miss
- Oct 31BOS 109 @ PHI 108Picked BOS 53%Hit
- Oct 22PHI 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 6PHI 105 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Feb 20BOS 124 @ PHI 104Picked BOS 69%Hit
- Feb 2BOS 118 @ PHI 110Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 25PHI 118 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 78%Miss
- Feb 27PHI 99 @ BOS 117Picked BOS 79%Hit