Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints22
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds13
Suns- Collin GillespiePoints15
- Oso IghodaroAssists5
- Ryan DunnRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–81
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–81
- Q43.9shot clock turnover97–81
- Q430.3Khaman Maluach makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)97–81
- Q436.4Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound97–78
- Q439.3Khaman Maluach blocks Luka Garza 's 7-foot two point shot97–78
- Q440.1Luka Garza offensive rebound97–78
- Q443.9John Tonje misses 26-foot three point jumper97–78
- Q453.5Ryan Dunn loose ball foul97–78
- Q453.5Celtics offensive team rebound97–78
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:16Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)BOS 28 – 33 PHX · BOS 44% → 51% +7BOS 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q27:57Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)BOS 28 – 38 PHX · PHX 55% → 62% +7PHX 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q26:41Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 30 – 41 PHX · PHX 58% → 65% +7PHX 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q25:08Derrick White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 35 – 41 PHX · BOS 39% → 47% +8BOS 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q23:39Derrick White makes 31-foot three pointer (Sam Hauser assists)BOS 42 – 41 PHX · BOS 57% → 65% +8BOS 57% → 65%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML BOS -218 / PHX +180
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.9%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -192
- PHX +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 106.5 – 101.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 207.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1662 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | −23 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −36 · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +84 Elo | BOS 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 112.624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 111.65th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.3 | Margin | +1.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–10 | Road vs home | 19–1110th of 30 |
| 30th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301662 | Elo rating | 151913th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−33 Elo- Jaylen Brown right knee contusion−36 Elo
Suns
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–24 | 35–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–19 | 18–10 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–35 | 25–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–0 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.