Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Donovan ClinganPoints23
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds13
Suns- Collin GillespiePoints18
- Amir CoffeyAssists4
- Khaman MaluachRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–77
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–77
- Q40.1Suns offensive team rebound92–77
- Q40.1Koby Brea misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot92–77
- Q48.3Khaman Maluach defensive goaltending violation92–77
- Q48.3Blake Wesley makes driving layup92–77
- Q420.8Ryan Dunn personal foul90–77
- Q439.2Koby Brea makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)90–77
- Q449.3Sidy Cissoko lost ball turnover (Ryan Dunn steals)90–74
- Q41:00Matisse Thybulle offensive rebound90–74
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:47Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 18 – 16 PHX · POR 56% → 63% +7POR 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q24:57Donovan Clingan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 33 – 29 PHX · POR 60% → 67% +8POR 60% → 67%+8 pts
- Q23:19Rasheer Fleming makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)POR 37 – 32 PHX · PHX 23% → 30% +7PHX 23% → 30%+7 pts
- Q21:54Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 42 – 36 PHX · POR 65% → 73% +8POR 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q39:10Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumperPOR 51 – 45 PHX · PHX 19% → 27% +7PHX 19% → 27%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML POR -162 / PHX +136
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- POR 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.6 pts
- POR: Elo 42.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- POR -146
- PHX +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 114.0 – 110.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | −36 | POR: Missing Shaedon Sharpe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +51 Elo | PHX 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 113.324th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 112.06th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.9 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 111.510th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.6 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 19–107th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301442 | Elo rating | 153613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+15 Elo- Shaedon Sharpe strained left calf−5 Elo
Suns
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–27 | 35–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 18–10 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–25 | 25–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–7 PHX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 3PHX 130 @ POR 125Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Nov 18PHX 127 @ POR 110Picked POR 53%Miss
- Feb 3PHX 119 @ POR 121Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Feb 1PHX 108 @ POR 127Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Dec 15POR 109 @ PHX 116Picked PHX 83%Hit
- Nov 2POR 97 @ PHX 103Picked PHX 86%Hit
- Jan 14PHX 127 @ POR 116Picked PHX 67%Hit
- Jan 1POR 88 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 57%Hit