Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Spencer JonesRebounds10
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints19
- Deni AvdijaAssists13
- Donovan ClinganRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game157–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter157–103
- Q422.0shot clock turnover157–103
- Q444.1DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound157–103
- Q446.2Yang Hansen misses 8-foot two point shot157–103
- Q41:00Javonte Cooke defensive rebound157–103
- Q41:02Julian Strawther misses two point shot157–103
- Q41:04Julian Strawther offensive rebound157–103
- Q41:06Julian Strawther misses running pullup jump shot157–103
- Q41:11Spencer Jones defensive rebound157–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:29Donovan Clingan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)DEN 2 – 3 POR · POR 43% → 49% +6POR 43% → 49%+6 pts
- Q111:05Donovan Clingan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)DEN 2 – 6 POR · POR 50% → 56% +6POR 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q18:58Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 10 – 10 POR · DEN 46% → 53% +6DEN 46% → 53%+6 pts
- Q18:23Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 15 – 10 POR · DEN 57% → 63% +6DEN 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q17:46Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Deni Avdija assists)DEN 17 – 15 POR · POR 37% → 43% +6POR 37% → 43%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML DEN -122 / POR +102
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 57.3%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -111
- POR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 121.5 – 120.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +20 | +15 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +51 Elo | DEN 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 52.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.3 | Points scored | 116.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 118.323rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −2.020th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 111.923rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 113.818th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.5 | Pace | 103.56th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–10 | Road vs home | 16–1316th of 30 |
| 29th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301592 | Elo rating | 147019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–25 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–18 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–22 | 31–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–3 POR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Oct 31DEN 107 @ POR 109Picked DEN 67%Miss
- Mar 21DEN 109 @ POR 128Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Feb 12POR 121 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Feb 10POR 117 @ DEN 146Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Dec 19DEN 124 @ POR 126Picked DEN 75%Miss
- Mar 23DEN 114 @ POR 111Picked DEN 62%Hit
- Feb 23DEN 127 @ POR 112Picked DEN 52%Hit
- Feb 4POR 103 @ DEN 112Picked DEN 78%Hit