Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints23
- Payton PritchardAssists4
- Jaylen BrownRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints30
- Nikola JokicAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–103
- Q412.2shot clock turnover84–103
- Q433.3DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound84–103
- Q436.2Luka Garza misses free throw 2 of 284–103
- Q436.2Celtics offensive team rebound84–103
- Q436.2Luka Garza misses free throw 1 of 284–103
- Q436.2Zeke Nnaji shooting foul84–103
- Q439.2Luka Garza offensive rebound84–103
- Q442.1Ron Harper Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper84–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:09Baylor Scheierman makes 27-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 54 – 50 DEN · BOS 47% → 57% +9BOS 47% → 57%+9 pts
- Q37:37Christian Braun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)BOS 56 – 55 DEN · DEN 42% → 52% +10DEN 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q35:18Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three pointer (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 61 – 59 DEN · BOS 42% → 52% +10BOS 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q33:49Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)BOS 61 – 64 DEN · DEN 55% → 65% +10DEN 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q333.2Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumperBOS 67 – 75 DEN · DEN 73% → 82% +9DEN 73% → 82%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML BOS +130 / DEN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- DEN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 54.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.5 – 116.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1672 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | +44 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +33 Elo | DEN 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 120.81st of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 116.319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.4 | Margin | +4.57th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 119.81st of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 115.322nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–10 | Road vs home | 15–1113th of 30 |
| 30th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 148429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301672 | Elo rating | 16037th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–24 | 32–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–19 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–36 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–3 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.