Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds20
Warriors- Moses MoodyPoints23
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists9
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–128
- Q420.6Al Horford makes 2-foot dunk (Moses Moody assists)117–128
- Q433.7Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound117–126
- Q436.4Jamal Murray misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot117–126
- Q438.5Moses Moody kicked ball violation117–126
- Q444.2shot clock turnover117–126
- Q445.1Warriors offensive team rebound117–126
- Q446.9De'Anthony Melton misses 26-foot three point jumper117–126
- Q41:06De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound117–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:02Gary Payton II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)DEN 101 – 101 GS · GS 29% → 42% +13GS 29% → 42%+13 pts
- Q49:05Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quinten Post assists)DEN 105 – 104 GS · GS 25% → 38% +13GS 25% → 38%+13 pts
- Q47:08Gary Payton II makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)DEN 109 – 107 GS · GS 20% → 33% +13GS 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q45:38Brandin Podziemski makes 27-foot running jump shot (Gui Santos assists)DEN 109 – 112 GS · GS 44% → 62% +18GS 44% → 62%+18 pts
- Q45:03Brandin Podziemski makes 18-foot driving floating jump shot (Gui Santos assists)DEN 109 – 114 GS · GS 63% → 74% +11GS 63% → 74%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML DEN -238 / GS +195
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5
- DEN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 69.3%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -208
- GS +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 117.5 – 111.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1620 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −54 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −30 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +142 Elo | DEN 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.9 | Points scored | 115.416th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 113.811th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.0 | Offense rating | 113.013th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 111.49th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.715th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–10 | Road vs home | 18–1111th of 30 |
| 29th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 5th of 301620 | Elo rating | 152914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−54 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−30 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–25 | 25–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–18 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–22 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 7–2 GS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 7GS 104 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Oct 23DEN 131 @ GS 137Picked GS 51%Hit
- Apr 4DEN 104 @ GS 118Picked GS 59%Hit
- Mar 17DEN 114 @ GS 105Picked GS 81%Miss
- Dec 3GS 115 @ DEN 119Picked DEN 64%Hit
- Feb 25DEN 119 @ GS 103Picked GS 59%Miss
- Jan 4DEN 130 @ GS 127Picked DEN 57%Hit
- Dec 25GS 114 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 67%Hit