Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points18
- Nolan TraoreAssists7
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds5
Celtics- Nikola VucevicPoints28
- Jaylen BrownAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–148
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–148
- Q48.3shot clock turnover111–148
- Q432.9Ochai Agbaji makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Grant Nelson assists)111–148
- Q443.2Luka Garza makes free throw 2 of 2109–148
- Q443.2Celtics offensive team rebound109–147
- Q443.2Luka Garza misses free throw 1 of 2109–147
- Q443.2Jalen Wilson shooting foul109–147
- Q444.9Grant Nelson bad pass
turnover (Luka Garza steals)109–147
- Q446.3Grant Nelson defensive rebound109–147
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:08Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 49 – 52 BOS · BKN 9% → 12% +4BKN 9% → 12%+4 pts
- Q23:43Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)BKN 49 – 55 BOS · BOS 88% → 91% +4BOS 88% → 91%+4 pts
- Q23:22Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Noah Clowney assists)BKN 52 – 55 BOS · BKN 9% → 13% +4BKN 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q37:07Payton Pritchard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BKN 73 – 82 BOS · BOS 90% → 94% +4BOS 90% → 94%+4 pts
- Q36:23Noah Clowney makes 23-foot running jump shot (Egor Demin assists)BKN 76 – 82 BOS · BKN 6% → 10% +4BKN 6% → 10%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -16.5
- ML BKN +800 / BOS -1350
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -14.5
- BOS 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 91.1%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -838
- BKN +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 96.0 – 112.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1314 | 1658 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | −2 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | BOS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +403 Elo | BOS 91.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 87.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 87.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 107.51st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.1 | Margin | +6.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 117.42nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 110.15th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 97.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 307–22 | Road vs home | 18–96th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148330th of 30 |
| 29th of 301314 | Elo rating | 16582nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–32 | 33–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 23–19 |
| Underdog | 23–31 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–31 | 21–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–10 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Jan 23BOS 130 @ BKN 126Picked BOS 75%Hit
- Nov 21BKN 113 @ BOS 105Picked BOS 84%Miss
- Nov 18BOS 113 @ BKN 99Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Mar 18BKN 96 @ BOS 104Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Mar 15BOS 115 @ BKN 113Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Nov 13BOS 139 @ BKN 114Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Nov 8BKN 104 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Feb 14BKN 86 @ BOS 136Picked BOS 78%Hit