San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints25
- De'Aaron FoxAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints25
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–114
- Q417.0Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound89–114
- Q420.3Jordan McLaughlin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot89–114
- Q435.4Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 2 of 289–114
- Q435.4Knicks offensive team rebound89–113
- Q435.4Jeremy Sochan misses free throw 1 of 289–113
- Q435.4Carter Bryant shooting foul89–113
- Q435.4Jeremy Sochan offensive rebound89–113
- Q437.0Mohamed Diawara misses 24-foot three point jumper89–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q133.4Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotSA 21 – 22 NY · NY 44% → 51% +7NY 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q211:24Mohamed Diawara makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)SA 21 – 25 NY · NY 51% → 58% +7NY 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q310:43Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)SA 43 – 54 NY · NY 72% → 79% +7NY 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q39:14Devin Vassell makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 48 – 56 NY · SA 20% → 28% +7SA 20% → 28%+7 pts
- Q411:32Mohamed Diawara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)SA 71 – 83 NY · NY 83% → 90% +7NY 83% → 90%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -1.5
- ML SA -118 / NY -102
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- SA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- SA: Elo 53.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -107
- NY +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.5 – 113.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | +10 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +26 Elo | SA 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 117.49th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 111.56th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +5.95th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 117.03rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–10 | Road vs home | 22–85th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149226th of 30 |
| 5th of 301624 | Elo rating | 16186th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–25 | 31–30 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–19 | 27–24 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35 | 31–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–3 NY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.