New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints27
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Bucks- Myles TurnerPoints19
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists10
- Kevin Porter Jr.Rebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–98
- Q419.3Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound127–98
- Q423.0Gary Harris misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot127–98
- Q433.5Gary Trent Jr. defensive rebound127–98
- Q437.1Jordan Clarkson misses 27-foot three point jumper127–98
- Q446.1Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound127–98
- Q450.3Gary Trent Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot127–98
- Q458.1Trey Jemison III offensive foul turnover127–98
- Q458.1Trey Jemison III offensive foul127–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:42Josh Hart makes 23-foot three pointer (OG Anunoby assists)NY 7 – 8 MIL · NY 63% → 69% +6NY 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q15:24Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)NY 19 – 20 MIL · MIL 26% → 32% +6MIL 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q14:46Jalen Brunson makes 23-foot running jump shot (Landry Shamet assists)NY 22 – 20 MIL · NY 68% → 74% +6NY 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q13:24Landry Shamet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mohamed Diawara assists)NY 27 – 24 MIL · NY 70% → 76% +6NY 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q11:20Bobby Portis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)NY 32 – 27 MIL · MIL 14% → 21% +7MIL 14% → 21%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML NY -298 / MIL +240
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- NY: Elo 64.2%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -255
- MIL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.0 – 105.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −26 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +102 Elo | NY 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 112.424th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.5 | Margin | −3.122nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 112.416th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 115.522nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 99.425th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 14–1315th of 30 |
| 25th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 7th of 301604 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–30 | 27–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–24 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 24–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–4 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Nov 28MIL 109 @ NY 118Picked NY 70%Hit
- Oct 28NY 111 @ MIL 121Picked NY 55%Miss
- Mar 28NY 116 @ MIL 107Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jan 12MIL 106 @ NY 140Picked NY 62%Hit
- Nov 8MIL 94 @ NY 116Picked NY 69%Hit
- Apr 7NY 122 @ MIL 109Picked MIL 54%Miss
- Dec 25MIL 122 @ NY 129Picked MIL 58%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 130 @ NY 111Picked MIL 53%Hit