Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists14
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Cavaliers- Jaylon TysonPoints22
- James HardenAssists7
- Craig Porter Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–113
- Q40.0Pistons offensive team rebound109–113
- Q40.0Jalen Duren misses heave jump shot109–113
- Q41.3Jalen Duren defensive rebound109–113
- Q41.3Jaylon Tyson misses free throw 2 of 2109–113
- Q41.3Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2109–113
- Q41.3Javonte Green personal foul109–112
- Q43.2Jalen Duren makes 1-foot running dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)109–112
- Q47.4Dennis Schroder lost ball turnover (Javonte Green steals)107–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:32Evan Mobley makes 24-foot three pointerDET 99 – 104 CLE · CLE 61% → 79% +17CLE 61% → 79%+17 pts
- Q42:56Jalen Duren makes 1-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 103 – 104 CLE · DET 28% → 43% +16DET 28% → 43%+16 pts
- Q42:38Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DET 103 – 107 CLE · CLE 57% → 80% +23CLE 57% → 80%+23 pts
- Q42:10Jalen Duren makes alley oop layup (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 105 – 107 CLE · DET 17% → 32% +15DET 17% → 32%+15 pts
- Q41:22Dennis Schroder makes driving layupDET 105 – 110 CLE · CLE 82% → 94% +12CLE 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML DET -142 / CLE +120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- DET: Elo 57.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -129
- CLE +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 115.0 – 112.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | −26 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +53 Elo | DET 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 119.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 115.014th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.9 | Margin | +4.29th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 115.95th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.6 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.0 | Pace | 102.212th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–7 | Road vs home | 20–117th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301645 | Elo rating | 16315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–27 | 26–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–26 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 10–1 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–34 | 30–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–8 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Feb 27CLE 119 @ DET 122Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 4DET 114 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Oct 27CLE 116 @ DET 95Picked CLE 54%Hit
- Mar 28CLE 122 @ DET 133Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Feb 5CLE 118 @ DET 115Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Jan 27DET 91 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Oct 25DET 101 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Mar 1CLE 110 @ DET 100Picked CLE 68%Hit