Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- James HardenPoints22
- James HardenAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points26
- Danny WolfAssists5
- Danny WolfRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–102
- Q40.1Nets offensive team rebound106–102
- Q40.1Michael Porter Jr. misses heave jump shot106–102
- Q43.7Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2106–102
- Q43.7Cavaliers offensive team rebound105–102
- Q43.7Evan Mobley misses free throw 1 of 2105–102
- Q43.7Day'Ron Sharpe personal take foul105–102
- Q43.7Evan Mobley offensive rebound105–102
- Q44.8Dennis Schroder misses free throw 2 of 2105–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:59Josh Minott makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)CLE 78 – 80 BKN · BKN 30% → 42% +13BKN 30% → 42%+13 pts
- Q49:32Craig Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)CLE 81 – 80 BKN · CLE 57% → 70% +13CLE 57% → 70%+13 pts
- Q46:57Jaylon Tyson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 88 – 84 BKN · CLE 69% → 82% +13CLE 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q49.2Danny Wolf makes free throw 2 of 2CLE 102 – 101 BKN · BKN 3% → 17% +14BKN 3% → 17%+14 pts
- Q47.7Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2CLE 103 – 101 BKN · CLE 85% → 98% +13CLE 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML CLE -600 / BKN +440
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9.5
- CLE 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 82.7%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -463
- BKN +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.5 – 106.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1311 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −17 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +272 Elo | CLE 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 107.030th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 115.615th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −8.628th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 108.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 116.927th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.3 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 8–2130th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15077th of 30 |
| 5th of 301630 | Elo rating | 131129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–35 | 26–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 19–30 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 23–32 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31 | 28–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–1 BKN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 19BKN 84 @ CLE 112Picked CLE 88%Hit
- Oct 24CLE 131 @ BKN 124Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Mar 11BKN 104 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Feb 20CLE 110 @ BKN 97Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Dec 16CLE 130 @ BKN 101Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Nov 9BKN 100 @ CLE 105Picked CLE 85%Hit
- Mar 10BKN 120 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 75%Miss
- Feb 8CLE 118 @ BKN 95Picked CLE 63%Hit