Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Noah ClowneyPoints17
- Danny WolfAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds8
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints23
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists5
- Kel'el WareRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–124
- Q48.1Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound98–124
- Q411.3Jalen Wilson misses 23-foot three point jumper98–124
- Q425.6Kel'el Ware makes driving floating jump shot98–124
- Q426.1Kel'el Ware offensive rebound98–122
- Q430.2Kasparas Jakucionis misses 26-foot three point jumper98–122
- Q441.2Grant Nelson makes free throw 2 of 298–122
- Q441.2Nets offensive team rebound97–122
- Q441.2Grant Nelson misses free throw 1 of 297–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:04Danny Wolf makes 25-foot three pointerBKN 26 – 24 MIA · BKN 18% → 22% +5BKN 18% → 22%+5 pts
- Q11:45Bam Adebayo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)BKN 26 – 27 MIA · MIA 77% → 82% +5MIA 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q119.4Kasparas Jakucionis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)BKN 28 – 34 MIA · MIA 85% → 89% +4MIA 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q28:45Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)BKN 39 – 44 MIA · MIA 83% → 87% +4MIA 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q28:21Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)BKN 39 – 47 MIA · MIA 87% → 91% +4MIA 87% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -12.5
- ML BKN +490 / MIA -675
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -9.5
- MIA 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 82.4%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -514
- BKN +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 106.5 – 119.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1309 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +22 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Norman Powell −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +268 Elo | MIA 82.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 81.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 119.82nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 117.020th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.5 | Margin | +2.911th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 110.15th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–23 | Road vs home | 18–1110th of 30 |
| 5th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 29th of 301309 | Elo rating | 151215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+22 Elo- Norman Powell strained right groin−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–33 | 35–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 24–32 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–32 | 31–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–5 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Dec 18MIA 106 @ BKN 95Picked MIA 71%Hit
- Feb 7MIA 86 @ BKN 102Picked MIA 65%Miss
- Jan 25MIA 106 @ BKN 97Picked MIA 70%Hit
- Dec 23BKN 95 @ MIA 110Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Jan 15MIA 96 @ BKN 95Picked MIA 55%Hit
- Nov 25MIA 97 @ BKN 112Picked BKN 60%Hit
- Nov 16BKN 115 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 57%Hit
- Nov 1BKN 109 @ MIA 105Picked BKN 54%Hit