Houston Rockets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints32
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints24
- Davion MitchellAssists5
- Kel'el WareRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–115
- Q41.6shot clock turnover105–115
- Q425.7Aaron Holiday makes 8-foot floating jump shot105–115
- Q437.0Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2103–115
- Q437.0Isaiah Crawford enters the game for Alperen Sengun103–114
- Q437.0Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Tari Eason103–114
- Q437.0Aaron Holiday enters the game for Reed Sheppard103–114
- Q437.0Josh Okogie enters the game for Kevin Durant103–114
- Q437.0Clint Capela enters the game for Amen Thompson103–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:30Tari Eason makes 22-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 90 – 93 MIA · HOU 25% → 38% +13HOU 25% → 38%+13 pts
- Q44:12Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 98 – 104 MIA · MIA 68% → 84% +16MIA 68% → 84%+16 pts
- Q43:19Kel'el Ware makes tip shotHOU 101 – 106 MIA · MIA 71% → 83% +12MIA 71% → 83%+12 pts
- Q42:58Alperen Sengun makes 14-foot floating jump shot (Tari Eason assists)HOU 103 – 106 MIA · HOU 16% → 28% +12HOU 16% → 28%+12 pts
- Q42:41Bam Adebayo makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)HOU 103 – 108 MIA · MIA 73% → 86% +12MIA 73% → 86%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML HOU -142 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.5 – 112.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | +21 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +38 Elo | HOU 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.7 | Points scored | 119.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 117.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +2.711th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 110.25th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 105.91st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 17–1112th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 8th of 301584 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–31 | 34–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–30 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–33 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.