Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points27
- Nolan TraoreAssists9
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds13
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints25
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–126
- Q46.6Myron Gardner defensive rebound110–126
- Q411.2Ochai Agbaji misses 23-foot three point jumper110–126
- Q426.3Ben Saraf enters the game for Ziaire Williams110–126
- Q426.3Kasparas Jakucionis enters the game for Tyler Herro110–126
- Q426.3Trevor Keels enters the game for Bam Adebayo110–126
- Q426.3Jahmir Young enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.110–126
- Q426.3Myron Gardner enters the game for Pelle Larsson110–126
- Q426.3shot clock turnover110–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:59Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 64 – 60 MIA · BKN 26% → 34% +8BKN 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q39:45Pelle Larsson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)BKN 64 – 63 MIA · MIA 65% → 73% +8MIA 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q38:48Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)BKN 69 – 65 MIA · BKN 27% → 35% +8BKN 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q36:09Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)BKN 75 – 74 MIA · BKN 21% → 29% +8BKN 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q35:45Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)BKN 75 – 77 MIA · MIA 71% → 79% +8MIA 71% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -12.5
- ML BKN +550 / MIA -800
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -10.5
- MIA 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 84.7%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -578
- BKN +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 106.5 – 119.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1303 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +30 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Norman Powell −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +297 Elo | MIA 84.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 83.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 84.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.8 | Points scored | 119.92nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 116.720th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.8 | Margin | +3.211th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 113.113th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 109.94th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–24 | Road vs home | 19–119th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 29th of 301303 | Elo rating | 151716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+30 Elo- Norman Powell right groin strain−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–34 | 36–26 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 17–14 |
| Underdog | 24–33 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–33 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–6 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Mar 3BKN 98 @ MIA 124Picked MIA 84%Hit
- Dec 18MIA 106 @ BKN 95Picked MIA 71%Hit
- Feb 7MIA 86 @ BKN 102Picked MIA 65%Miss
- Jan 25MIA 106 @ BKN 97Picked MIA 70%Hit
- Dec 23BKN 95 @ MIA 110Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Jan 15MIA 96 @ BKN 95Picked MIA 55%Hit
- Nov 25MIA 97 @ BKN 112Picked BKN 60%Hit
- Nov 16BKN 115 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 57%Hit