Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints14
- Bub CarringtonAssists5
- Will RileyRebounds10
Hawks- Corey KispertPoints33
- Dyson DanielsAssists11
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–126
- Q46.3Christian Koloko defensive rebound96–126
- Q48.3Sharife Cooper misses driving layup96–126
- Q420.1Leaky Black defensive rebound96–126
- Q423.3Christian Koloko misses 10-foot two point shot96–126
- Q426.1Christian Koloko offensive rebound96–126
- Q429.2Asa Newell misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot96–126
- Q443.7Jaden Hardy makes free throw 2 of 296–126
- Q443.7Jaden Hardy makes free throw 1 of 295–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:58Tristan Vukcevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)WSH 8 – 14 ATL · WSH 10% → 13% +3WSH 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q12:53Corey Kispert makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)WSH 18 – 25 ATL · ATL 84% → 88% +4ATL 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q12:34Anthony Gill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)WSH 21 – 25 ATL · WSH 12% → 16% +4WSH 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q11:30Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)WSH 24 – 29 ATL · WSH 11% → 15% +4WSH 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q11:00Corey Kispert makes 23-foot running jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)WSH 24 – 32 ATL · ATL 85% → 89% +4ATL 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -10.5
- ML WSH +390 / ATL -520
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -5.5
- ATL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 70.4%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -411
- WSH +411 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.0 – 123.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1320 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −54 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +151 Elo | ATL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 77.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 77.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 80.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 117.010th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 118.022nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.5 | Margin | −1.019th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 112.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.3 | Pace | 103.74th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 12–1622nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 29th of 301320 | Elo rating | 147819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–33 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 22–31 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 30–27 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–7 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Feb 24WSH 98 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 83%Hit
- Dec 6ATL 131 @ WSH 116Picked ATL 78%Hit
- Nov 25ATL 113 @ WSH 132Picked ATL 81%Miss
- Feb 8ATL 125 @ WSH 111Picked ATL 69%Hit
- Nov 15WSH 117 @ ATL 129Picked ATL 77%Hit
- Oct 30ATL 120 @ WSH 133Picked ATL 65%Miss
- Oct 28WSH 121 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 73%Miss
- Jan 13WSH 127 @ ATL 99Picked ATL 63%Miss