Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints37
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Ryan KalkbrennerRebounds9
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints17
- Will RileyAssists4
- Alondes WilliamsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–112
- Q43.3Alondes Williams bad pass
turnover (Tre Mann steals)129–112
- Q46.4Alondes Williams defensive rebound129–112
- Q48.8Tre Mann misses 19-foot step back jumpshot129–112
- Q431.9Sharife Cooper makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot129–112
- Q453.0Will Riley defensive rebound129–109
- Q454.8Sion James misses free throw 2 of 2129–109
- Q454.8Hornets offensive team rebound129–109
- Q454.8Sion James misses free throw 1 of 2129–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q134.4Alondes Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)CHA 35 – 35 WSH · WSH 17% → 22% +5WSH 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q10.1Brandon Miller makes 35-foot three pointerCHA 38 – 37 WSH · CHA 74% → 79% +6CHA 74% → 79%+6 pts
- Q211:12Kon Knueppel makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)CHA 41 – 37 WSH · CHA 79% → 84% +5CHA 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q22:09Bub Carrington makes 28-foot running jump shot (Anthony Gill assists)CHA 57 – 53 WSH · WSH 13% → 18% +5WSH 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q311:29Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 64 – 56 WSH · CHA 84% → 89% +5CHA 84% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -10.5
- ML CHA -535 / WSH +400
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -7
- CHA 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CHA: Elo 74.8%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- CHA -421
- WSH +421 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 117.0 – 106.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1334 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −21 | CHA: Missing Moussa Diabate −18, Miles Bridges −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −12, Justin Champagnie −4 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +189 Elo | CHA 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 112.525th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 122.729th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −10.229th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 108.427th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 118.328th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 103.38th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 15th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 11–1825th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 13th of 301535 | Elo rating | 133429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+4 Elo- Moussa Diabate suspended by league−18 Elo
- Miles Bridges suspended by league−14 Elo
Wizards
−21 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic right hand−12 Elo
- Justin Champagnie right knee injury−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–22 | 24–31 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 26–16 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders | 22–35 | 29–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 5–6 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
- Jan 24WSH 115 @ CHA 119Picked CHA 80%Hit
- Dec 23WSH 109 @ CHA 126Picked CHA 69%Hit
- Oct 26CHA 139 @ WSH 113Picked WSH 53%Miss
- Mar 1WSH 113 @ CHA 100Picked CHA 61%Miss
- Feb 3WSH 124 @ CHA 114Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Dec 26CHA 110 @ WSH 113Picked CHA 63%Miss
- Dec 19CHA 114 @ WSH 123Picked CHA 59%Miss
- Mar 8CHA 100 @ WSH 112Picked CHA 53%Miss